Unfortanlly the video doesn't allow embedding, so here is a link to Tina Turner's Simply the Best. And that's what Zenyatta was on Saturday.
I had planned to do a full recap of each of the 14 races on today, but this girl deserves her own post tonight. What an historic achivement that she did, first female to ever win the Breeders' Cup Classic something Azeri couldn't do. The question is do can you deny her Horse of the Year, I say no. However, I also think Rachel Alexandra deserves Horse of the Year as well. That's right I think there should be Co-Horse of the Year, they both deserve it. It's really a shame that they are not going to face each other, that would have settled the confusion and we may have had a clear cut Horse of the Year. And people like to blame one connections over the other, I'm going to blame both. Jess Jackson should have brought Rachel to Santa Anita and Jerry Moss should have brought Zenyatta to Belmont or Saratoga. What Santa Anita have done is make special accomandations for Rachel and NYRA should have excused Zenyatta from going to the detention barn. Unfortnally that was never ment to be, and they stayed their seperate paths. This is going to be an interesting debate for the rest of the year and we won't know till January of who will be HOY. Until then let's enjoy the Amazon that is Zenyatta Mondatta (the full title of the Police album that she is named after, of course Jerry Moss is the M in A & M Records where the Police made their name in the US.)
Congrats to John and Dottie Shirreffs, her trainer and the racing manager for her owners respectivly, jockey Mike Smith, Jerry and Ann Moss her owners, the entire Shirreffs barn for their sweep of the Ladies Classic and Classic, and of course Zenyatta's parents Street Cry and Vertigineux.
Tomorrow I will recap the rest of the 2 days of action and then will be taking the rest of the week off to recover from an exciting two days of racing. Starting next week I'll be sharing some of my favorite races of the year, plus comparing this year's 3yo's to one of my favorite 3yo year 2007. Also I will be starting to share stories of retired thoroughbred race horses in the upcoming weeks.
Monday, November 9, 2009
Sunday, November 8, 2009
They Call Her Zenyatta- Preview to tomorrow's post
"They call her Zenyatta, Zenyatta faster then lighting, no one you see is smarter then her."- A bit of the theme to Flipper, but replaced his name with Zen's.
Okay so why am I comparing a 5yo mare to a dolphin, I'm not but the lyrics go with what she did on Saturday. Here is a video with all of the lyrics to make more sense of what I mean.
Tomorrow I will have a recap of Zenyatta's amazing Classic win, my thoroughts on why there should be 2 HOY's (some people may agree, some people may disagree). And I'll explain what will be happening the next few weeks as the major season of horse racing is now over.
Okay so why am I comparing a 5yo mare to a dolphin, I'm not but the lyrics go with what she did on Saturday. Here is a video with all of the lyrics to make more sense of what I mean.
Tomorrow I will have a recap of Zenyatta's amazing Classic win, my thoroughts on why there should be 2 HOY's (some people may agree, some people may disagree). And I'll explain what will be happening the next few weeks as the major season of horse racing is now over.
Thursday, November 5, 2009
Breeder's Cup Fields (Part 3)
Welcome to the Final Night of the Breeder's Cup Fields. Today I have four races and I'll preview each field. Instead of telling you how I'm going to play them (which I should note I'm actually this is all hypothetcial as I'm a horrible handicapper and bettor), I'm just going to tell you who want to win, who I think will win and the dark horse.
Filly & Mare Turf
1 Visit (GB), J. Velazquez, 10-1
2 Forever Together, J. Leparoux, 5/2
3 Rutherienne, Alan Garcia, 8-1
4 Magical Fantasy, Alex Solis, 3-1
5 Pure Clan, G. Gomez, 5-1
6 Midday (GB), T. Queally, 4-1
7 Dynaforce, K. Desormeaux, 8-1
8 Maram, J. Lezcano, 15-1
The winner of this race could be F/M Eclipse Champion unless Diamondrella, Goldikova or Dar Re Mi win their respective races. While Forever Together is the defending champ, I really don't like her chances here. She's really not been the same horse, and should have beaten Diamondrella both times they met. Rutherienne is coming in somewhat under the radar, she won her prep and has been a bit underated in her career. Beware of Magical Fantasy as well, she's the local in the race, Midday and Visit could be factors as well. I'm tossing Dynaforce, and Pure Clan as they may need softer courses to win. Maram could suprise everyone like she did last year in the Juvy Fillies Turf.
Who I want to win: Rutherianne, Visit, Midday
Who I think will win: Magical Fantasy, Forever Together, Midday
Dark Horse: Maram
BC Turf
1 Telling, J. Castellano, 20-1
2 Conduit (IRE), Ryan Moore, 7/5
3 Red Rocks (IRE), J. Leparoux, 20-1
4 Allegre, J. Velazquez, 50-1 scratched due to injury
5 Dar Re Mi (GB), L. Dettori, 3-1
6 Presious Passion, Elvis Trujillo, 4-1
7 Spanish Moon, K. Fallon, 5/2
8 Monzante, R. Bejarano, 30-1
No Sea the Stars, no Youmzin, not really interested in watching this year. Outside of Conduit, Dar Re Mi and Pressious Passion, this is a really sucky field dispite having Red Rocks, Telling and Spanish Moon. And those three are either Grade or Group 1 winners. However the three I mentioned first are the ones to beat. Conduit is the defending champ and is coming off a 3rd place finish in the Arc, Dar Re Mi gets a jockey change after she finished 5th in the Arc. Red Rocks is just not the same at age 6 that he was at age 3, 4, and 5. This is going to be his final race before being sold at Keenland, Spanish Moon hopefully won't have gate problems. However, they are all going to have to chase my pick Presious Passion around the track. The firm surface will keep him happy and give him his third G1 of the year, it won't be enough to steal Eclipse Turf Male away from Gio Ponti, but it will set him up for next year.
Who I want to win: Presious Passion, Telling, Dar Re Mi
Who I think will win: Dar Re Mi, Presious Passion, Conduit
Dark Horse:Telling
Ladies' Classic
1 Careless Jewel, Robert Landry, 2-1
2 Life Is Sweet, Garret Gomez, 8-1
3 Mushka, K. Desormeaux, 12-1
4 Lethal Heat, Alex Solis, 20-1
5 Proviso (GB), J. Velazquez, 8-1
6 Cocoa Beach (CHI), R. Migliore, 8-1
7 Music Note, R. Maragh, 9/5
8 Rainbow View, J. Leparoux, 6-1
9 times out of 10 the possible 3yo Champion Filly and the possible Older Champion Filly/Mare would meet here for the first time ever. However the possible Older Champion Mare taking on the boys and the slam dunk 3yo Champion Filly taking a rest, it's still a nice race. Any other year Careless Jewel would have been that slam dunk 3yo Champion Filly with her wins in the Delaware Oaks, Alabama and Collition. She's a pacesetter, although she can also sit off the pace. Any other year Music Note would be the possible Older Champion Filly/Mare, and is coming off two very impressive wins in the Ballerina and Beldame, she'll come from mid-pack, back of the pack. Instead the second fiddles to Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta will go for bragging rights here. I personally perfer Music Note over Careless Jewel, if Proviso can stay stright she has a chance as well, however if there is an upset of either Music Note or Careless Jewel, I think it will be from Lethal Heat. She almost was cross entered in this race and the Turf Sprint, but due to an over subscription of the latter, her connections had to choose a race. My only concern is that she has raced quite a bit in the past two months, however her last race was the Lady's Secret where finished second behind Zenyatta. Rainbow View could suprise people as well.
Who I want to win: Music Note, Careless Jewel, Lethal Heat
Who I think will win: Music Note, Life is Sweet, Proviso
Dark Horse: Lethal Heat, Proviso, Rainbow View
Last, but not least!
BC Classic
1 Mine That Bird, Calvin Borel, 12-1
2 Colonel John, G. Gomez, 12-1
3 Summer Bird, K. Desormeaux, 9/2
4 Zenyatta, Mike Smith, 5/2
5 Twice Over (GB), T. Queally, 20-1
6 Richard's Kid, Alex Solis, 12-1
7 Gio Ponti, R. Dominguez, 12-1
8 Einstein (BRZ), J. Leparoux, 12-1
9 Girolamo, Alan Garcia, 20-1
10 Rip Van Winkle (IRE), J. Murtagh, 7/2
11 Regal Ransom, R. Migliore, 20-1
12 Quality Road, J. Velazquez, 12-1
13 Awesome Gem, David Flores, 30-1
The big race of the day. Many people think a win by Zenyatta or Summer Bird could give them a chance at Horse of the Year, however don't count out Einstein or Richard's Kid. These where 2-1 in the Pacific Classic in August (Einstein was second, Richard's Kid won in a shocker), plus Einstein won the Santa Anita Handicap in March. Rip Van Winkle is a deserving second choice, however he has feet issues which is why I wouldn't use him, Regal Ransom could be the pace setter along with Quality Road, but don't expect either of them near the end (although QR has a very grassy female side and has the defending sire of this race as his sire). A win by either Einstein or Gio Ponti will give them Older Male, but don't forget the forgotten Bird. Although this is not his favorite surface, once again Mine That Bird is coming into a big race under radar. And with him and Borel on the rail, if he gets the trip that he got in the Derby he could steal this race and help "Borail's" BFF ice HOY (aka Rachel). Now go watch either Twice Over (who of the two Euros I perfer) or Awesome Gem win the race.
Who I want to win: Zenyatta, Einstein, Richard's Kid
Who I think will win: Sadly I think Zenyatta gets her first loss her, but only by a 1/2 length to Richard's Kid, Einstein in third. It would be the first Classic win for his trainer Bob Baffert and he would be the 2nd Maryland bred to win the race (the first being the one and only Cigar). Mine That Bird beats his "brother" Summer Bird for the 4th postion.
Dark Horse: Twice Over, Mine That Bird, Girolamo
Well that's it for the BC Fields, unfortanlly I have to work tomorrow and Saturday however I should be able to see some of the BC Saturday and one or two races tomorrow. I'll have a full recap on Monday, and then I'll announce what the plan for the blog is for the rest of the year. Anyway everyone good luck with your bets and hope everyone has a fablous Breeder's Cup weekend
Filly & Mare Turf
1 Visit (GB), J. Velazquez, 10-1
2 Forever Together, J. Leparoux, 5/2
3 Rutherienne, Alan Garcia, 8-1
4 Magical Fantasy, Alex Solis, 3-1
5 Pure Clan, G. Gomez, 5-1
6 Midday (GB), T. Queally, 4-1
7 Dynaforce, K. Desormeaux, 8-1
8 Maram, J. Lezcano, 15-1
The winner of this race could be F/M Eclipse Champion unless Diamondrella, Goldikova or Dar Re Mi win their respective races. While Forever Together is the defending champ, I really don't like her chances here. She's really not been the same horse, and should have beaten Diamondrella both times they met. Rutherienne is coming in somewhat under the radar, she won her prep and has been a bit underated in her career. Beware of Magical Fantasy as well, she's the local in the race, Midday and Visit could be factors as well. I'm tossing Dynaforce, and Pure Clan as they may need softer courses to win. Maram could suprise everyone like she did last year in the Juvy Fillies Turf.
Who I want to win: Rutherianne, Visit, Midday
Who I think will win: Magical Fantasy, Forever Together, Midday
Dark Horse: Maram
BC Turf
1 Telling, J. Castellano, 20-1
2 Conduit (IRE), Ryan Moore, 7/5
3 Red Rocks (IRE), J. Leparoux, 20-1
4 Allegre, J. Velazquez, 50-1 scratched due to injury
5 Dar Re Mi (GB), L. Dettori, 3-1
6 Presious Passion, Elvis Trujillo, 4-1
7 Spanish Moon, K. Fallon, 5/2
8 Monzante, R. Bejarano, 30-1
No Sea the Stars, no Youmzin, not really interested in watching this year. Outside of Conduit, Dar Re Mi and Pressious Passion, this is a really sucky field dispite having Red Rocks, Telling and Spanish Moon. And those three are either Grade or Group 1 winners. However the three I mentioned first are the ones to beat. Conduit is the defending champ and is coming off a 3rd place finish in the Arc, Dar Re Mi gets a jockey change after she finished 5th in the Arc. Red Rocks is just not the same at age 6 that he was at age 3, 4, and 5. This is going to be his final race before being sold at Keenland, Spanish Moon hopefully won't have gate problems. However, they are all going to have to chase my pick Presious Passion around the track. The firm surface will keep him happy and give him his third G1 of the year, it won't be enough to steal Eclipse Turf Male away from Gio Ponti, but it will set him up for next year.
Who I want to win: Presious Passion, Telling, Dar Re Mi
Who I think will win: Dar Re Mi, Presious Passion, Conduit
Dark Horse:Telling
Ladies' Classic
1 Careless Jewel, Robert Landry, 2-1
2 Life Is Sweet, Garret Gomez, 8-1
3 Mushka, K. Desormeaux, 12-1
4 Lethal Heat, Alex Solis, 20-1
5 Proviso (GB), J. Velazquez, 8-1
6 Cocoa Beach (CHI), R. Migliore, 8-1
7 Music Note, R. Maragh, 9/5
8 Rainbow View, J. Leparoux, 6-1
9 times out of 10 the possible 3yo Champion Filly and the possible Older Champion Filly/Mare would meet here for the first time ever. However the possible Older Champion Mare taking on the boys and the slam dunk 3yo Champion Filly taking a rest, it's still a nice race. Any other year Careless Jewel would have been that slam dunk 3yo Champion Filly with her wins in the Delaware Oaks, Alabama and Collition. She's a pacesetter, although she can also sit off the pace. Any other year Music Note would be the possible Older Champion Filly/Mare, and is coming off two very impressive wins in the Ballerina and Beldame, she'll come from mid-pack, back of the pack. Instead the second fiddles to Rachel Alexandra and Zenyatta will go for bragging rights here. I personally perfer Music Note over Careless Jewel, if Proviso can stay stright she has a chance as well, however if there is an upset of either Music Note or Careless Jewel, I think it will be from Lethal Heat. She almost was cross entered in this race and the Turf Sprint, but due to an over subscription of the latter, her connections had to choose a race. My only concern is that she has raced quite a bit in the past two months, however her last race was the Lady's Secret where finished second behind Zenyatta. Rainbow View could suprise people as well.
Who I want to win: Music Note, Careless Jewel, Lethal Heat
Who I think will win: Music Note, Life is Sweet, Proviso
Dark Horse: Lethal Heat, Proviso, Rainbow View
Last, but not least!
BC Classic
1 Mine That Bird, Calvin Borel, 12-1
2 Colonel John, G. Gomez, 12-1
3 Summer Bird, K. Desormeaux, 9/2
4 Zenyatta, Mike Smith, 5/2
5 Twice Over (GB), T. Queally, 20-1
6 Richard's Kid, Alex Solis, 12-1
7 Gio Ponti, R. Dominguez, 12-1
8 Einstein (BRZ), J. Leparoux, 12-1
9 Girolamo, Alan Garcia, 20-1
10 Rip Van Winkle (IRE), J. Murtagh, 7/2
11 Regal Ransom, R. Migliore, 20-1
12 Quality Road, J. Velazquez, 12-1
13 Awesome Gem, David Flores, 30-1
The big race of the day. Many people think a win by Zenyatta or Summer Bird could give them a chance at Horse of the Year, however don't count out Einstein or Richard's Kid. These where 2-1 in the Pacific Classic in August (Einstein was second, Richard's Kid won in a shocker), plus Einstein won the Santa Anita Handicap in March. Rip Van Winkle is a deserving second choice, however he has feet issues which is why I wouldn't use him, Regal Ransom could be the pace setter along with Quality Road, but don't expect either of them near the end (although QR has a very grassy female side and has the defending sire of this race as his sire). A win by either Einstein or Gio Ponti will give them Older Male, but don't forget the forgotten Bird. Although this is not his favorite surface, once again Mine That Bird is coming into a big race under radar. And with him and Borel on the rail, if he gets the trip that he got in the Derby he could steal this race and help "Borail's" BFF ice HOY (aka Rachel). Now go watch either Twice Over (who of the two Euros I perfer) or Awesome Gem win the race.
Who I want to win: Zenyatta, Einstein, Richard's Kid
Who I think will win: Sadly I think Zenyatta gets her first loss her, but only by a 1/2 length to Richard's Kid, Einstein in third. It would be the first Classic win for his trainer Bob Baffert and he would be the 2nd Maryland bred to win the race (the first being the one and only Cigar). Mine That Bird beats his "brother" Summer Bird for the 4th postion.
Dark Horse: Twice Over, Mine That Bird, Girolamo
Well that's it for the BC Fields, unfortanlly I have to work tomorrow and Saturday however I should be able to see some of the BC Saturday and one or two races tomorrow. I'll have a full recap on Monday, and then I'll announce what the plan for the blog is for the rest of the year. Anyway everyone good luck with your bets and hope everyone has a fablous Breeder's Cup weekend
Wednesday, November 4, 2009
Breeder's Cup Fields (Part 2)
Welcome to Part 2 of a three part field coverage for the 2009 Breeder's Cup. This year there are 14 races over two days at Oak Tree at Santa Anita in Arcadia, California. Here are the next five fields that I will be talking about over the course of three days. Also I will give how I would play each race betting wise. I may or may not play them though.
Juvenile Turf
1 Zip Quik, Mike Smith, 50-1
2 Viscount Nelson, John Murtagh, 6-1
3 Codoy, G. Gomez, 15-1
4 Pounced, L. Dettori, 9/2
5 Gallant Gent, J. Rosario, 30-1
6 Awesome Act, Ryan Moore, 20-1
7 Bridgetown, R. Landry, 8-1
8 King Ledley, R. Bejarano, 20-1
9 Kera's Kitten, R. Maragh, 12-1
10 Becky's Kitten, J. Leparoux, 12-1
11 Interactif, K. Desormeaux, 4-1
12 Buzzword (GB), Ahmed Ajtebi, 6-1
All eyes are on Pounced and Interactif, however bewhere of the two Kittens: Kera's Kitten and Becky's Kitten. The two sons of Kitten's Joy could suprise here.
Who I want to win: Interactif, Becky's Kitten
Who I think will win: Pounced
How I'll play the race: $2 across the board Interactif
Dark Horse: Kera's Kitten
Turf Sprint
1 Noble Court, J. Rosario, 8-1
2 Silver Timber, J. Leparoux, 8-1
3 California Flag, J. Talamo, 7/2
4 Lord Shanakill, Jim Crowley, 8-1
5 Get Funky, R. Bejarano, 20-1
6 Cannonball, R. Dominguez, 8-1
7 Gotta Have Her, T. Baze, 15-1
8 Square Eddie, L. Dettori, 20-1
9 Diamondrella (GB), R. Maragh, 4-1
10 Canadian Ballet, A. Garcia, 20-1
11 El Gato Malo, David Flores, 30-1
12 Strike the Deal, Kieren Fallon, 15-1
13 Desert Code, R. Migliore, 20-1
14 Delta Storm, G. Gomez, 10-1
This is one of my favorite races of the day as there are several horses that I like in the race. Cannonball almost won at Royal Ascot earlier this year, Diamondrella has beaten Forever Together twice this year, the defending champ Desert Code is coming underneath the radar and Gotta Have Her has a chance. With that being said, betting wise I'm throwing them all out and going with two underachivers to possibly shock everyone. They are 08 Lone Star Derby winner El Gato Malo and 08 Breeder's Futurity winner Square Eddie. A win by both would make me very happy. With that being said this is really Cannonball's race to lose and I wouldn't be upset if he wins either.
Who I want to win: El Gato Malo, Square Eddie, Cannonball
Who I think will win: Cannonball, Diamondrella, Gotta Have Her
How I'm playing: El Gato Malo/Square Eddie/Cannonball trifecta, $2 across the board El Gato Malo, Square Eddie, Cannonball, Diamondrella
Dark Horse: Diamondrella, Gotta Have Her, Canadian Ballet
Juvenile
1 Alfred Nobel (IRE), J. Murtagh, 20-1
2 Piscitelli, K. Desormeaux, 50-1
3 Beethoven (IRE), R. Moore, 20-1
4 Noble's Promise, Willie Martinez, 8-1
5 D'Funnybone, E. Prado, 5/2
6 Pulsion, Mike Smith, 20-1
7 Vale of York (IRE), A. Ajtebi, 20-1
8 Eskendereya, J. Castellano, 10-1
9 Aikenite, Alan Garcia, 8-1
10 Aspire, J. Leparoux, 30-1
11 Radiohead (GB), Martin Dwyer, 15-1
12 William's Kitten, R. Dominguez, 30-1
13 Lookin At Lucky, G. Gomez, 8/5
Believe it or not, but this race will be run with 6 months to go until the Kentucky Derby. The winner of the race will have more then enough graded stakes earnings to get into the field, and I think that winner will be Aikenite. The 13 post really hurts Lookin at Lucky's chances IMO, I do think his class will get him in the top three though. However, for personal reasons I would love to see Aikenite win this race, and he has experience on synth and dirt. Eskendereya could get in there as well. My dark horse is William's Kitten whose sire I mentioned before.
Who I want to win: Aikenite
Who I think will win: Lookin at Lucky, Aikenite, Eskendereya
Not going to play this race
Dark Horse: William's Kitten
BC Mile
1 Court Vision, R. Albarado, 12-1
2 Whatsthescript (IRE), K. Desormeaux, 15-1
3 Cowboy Cal, J. Velazquez, 6-1
4 Delegator (GB), L. Dettori, 3-1
5 Karelian, R. Maragh, 20-1
6 Courageous Cat, G. Gomez, 20-1
7 Ferneley (IRE), R. Bejarano, 20-1
8 Zacinto (GB), Ryan Moore, 8-1
9 Gladiatorus, Ahmed Ajtebi, 20-1
10 Justenuffhumor, A. Garcia, 10-1
11 Goldikova (IRE), O. Peslier, 8/5
All eyes will be on Goldikova as she tries to defend her Mile title. It would be the 4th title for her trainer Freddie Head, who won twice as a jockey on Miesque, the filly that Goldikova is often compared to. However, I see a bit of revenge taken this year by IEAH with Court Vision who ironicly is a full brother to Kipling the sire of 07 Mile and last year's runner up Kip Deville who is owned by IEAH. This would also flatter Gio Ponti (who I'll talk about tomorrow), as Court and him battled last year after the former switched to turf after the Derby. Karelian almost stole the Shadwell Mile won by Court Vision, and Cowboy Cal has a big chance as well. Keep an eye on Gladiatorus, he won in Dubai earlier this year and the other two prongs from Godolphin, Delagator and Justenuffhumor who could be Team USA's best chance in the race even with Court, Cal and Karelian.
Who I want to win: Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Justenuffhumor
Who I think will win: Court Vision, Goldikova, Karelian
How I'm playing it: Court Vision/Goldikova exacta, Karlian/Cowboy Cal exacta
Dark Horse: Karelian, Gladitourus
Dirt Mile
1 Mastercraftsman (IRE), John Murtagh, 6/5
2 Furthest Land, J. Leparoux, 20-1
3 Midshipman, G. Gomez, 6-1
4 Bullsbay, J. Rose, 3-1
5 Neko Bay, Mike Smith, 20-1
6 Mambo Meister, M. Cruz, 30-1
7 Pyro, J. Velazquez, 10-1
8 Mr. Sidney, K. Desormeaux, 12-1
9 Chocolate Candy, J. Rosario, 15-1
10 Ready's Echo, Calvin Borel, 20-1
This is a race where with the expection of Neko Bay, Mambo Meister, and Furthest Land the rest of the horses could be in the Classic. However, the "Dirt" Mile is where they landed. The three I just mentioned I'm throwing out this is not a race where longshots won't have a chance this year (My opinon). Midshipman has raced once this year for Goldolphin, but won the Juvy last year in his first and only race for Darley (he was a Stonerside horse before). Pyro finally got his G1 win in the Forego, and this is probley the better race for him. However, he is not a huge synth fan, so it will be interesting how he does in his final race before stud. It's also the final race for Mr. Sidney who has been running on the turf all season, the same can not be said about Mastercraftsman who prepped on the synth in England last time out. Many people, are a bit disapointed that he's not in the Classic, however not all synths are alike. Beware of Chocolate Candy, and Ready's Echo as they can possibly steal the race. Bullsbay upset Commentator in the Whitney and ran third in the Woodward, but he missed some of training time leading up to this race.
Who I want to win: Chocolate Candy, Pyro, Mastercraftsman
Who I think will win: Mastercraftsman, Pyro
Not playing this race (I like too many horses that I would have to hit the ALL button!)
Dark Horse: Ready's Echo
Well I hope you enjoyed today's races, tomorrow the final 4, F/M Turf, Turf, Ladies Classic and Classic. Hope to see you then!
Juvenile Turf
1 Zip Quik, Mike Smith, 50-1
2 Viscount Nelson, John Murtagh, 6-1
3 Codoy, G. Gomez, 15-1
4 Pounced, L. Dettori, 9/2
5 Gallant Gent, J. Rosario, 30-1
6 Awesome Act, Ryan Moore, 20-1
7 Bridgetown, R. Landry, 8-1
8 King Ledley, R. Bejarano, 20-1
9 Kera's Kitten, R. Maragh, 12-1
10 Becky's Kitten, J. Leparoux, 12-1
11 Interactif, K. Desormeaux, 4-1
12 Buzzword (GB), Ahmed Ajtebi, 6-1
All eyes are on Pounced and Interactif, however bewhere of the two Kittens: Kera's Kitten and Becky's Kitten. The two sons of Kitten's Joy could suprise here.
Who I want to win: Interactif, Becky's Kitten
Who I think will win: Pounced
How I'll play the race: $2 across the board Interactif
Dark Horse: Kera's Kitten
Turf Sprint
1 Noble Court, J. Rosario, 8-1
2 Silver Timber, J. Leparoux, 8-1
3 California Flag, J. Talamo, 7/2
4 Lord Shanakill, Jim Crowley, 8-1
5 Get Funky, R. Bejarano, 20-1
6 Cannonball, R. Dominguez, 8-1
7 Gotta Have Her, T. Baze, 15-1
8 Square Eddie, L. Dettori, 20-1
9 Diamondrella (GB), R. Maragh, 4-1
10 Canadian Ballet, A. Garcia, 20-1
11 El Gato Malo, David Flores, 30-1
12 Strike the Deal, Kieren Fallon, 15-1
13 Desert Code, R. Migliore, 20-1
14 Delta Storm, G. Gomez, 10-1
This is one of my favorite races of the day as there are several horses that I like in the race. Cannonball almost won at Royal Ascot earlier this year, Diamondrella has beaten Forever Together twice this year, the defending champ Desert Code is coming underneath the radar and Gotta Have Her has a chance. With that being said, betting wise I'm throwing them all out and going with two underachivers to possibly shock everyone. They are 08 Lone Star Derby winner El Gato Malo and 08 Breeder's Futurity winner Square Eddie. A win by both would make me very happy. With that being said this is really Cannonball's race to lose and I wouldn't be upset if he wins either.
Who I want to win: El Gato Malo, Square Eddie, Cannonball
Who I think will win: Cannonball, Diamondrella, Gotta Have Her
How I'm playing: El Gato Malo/Square Eddie/Cannonball trifecta, $2 across the board El Gato Malo, Square Eddie, Cannonball, Diamondrella
Dark Horse: Diamondrella, Gotta Have Her, Canadian Ballet
Juvenile
1 Alfred Nobel (IRE), J. Murtagh, 20-1
2 Piscitelli, K. Desormeaux, 50-1
3 Beethoven (IRE), R. Moore, 20-1
4 Noble's Promise, Willie Martinez, 8-1
5 D'Funnybone, E. Prado, 5/2
6 Pulsion, Mike Smith, 20-1
7 Vale of York (IRE), A. Ajtebi, 20-1
8 Eskendereya, J. Castellano, 10-1
9 Aikenite, Alan Garcia, 8-1
10 Aspire, J. Leparoux, 30-1
11 Radiohead (GB), Martin Dwyer, 15-1
12 William's Kitten, R. Dominguez, 30-1
13 Lookin At Lucky, G. Gomez, 8/5
Believe it or not, but this race will be run with 6 months to go until the Kentucky Derby. The winner of the race will have more then enough graded stakes earnings to get into the field, and I think that winner will be Aikenite. The 13 post really hurts Lookin at Lucky's chances IMO, I do think his class will get him in the top three though. However, for personal reasons I would love to see Aikenite win this race, and he has experience on synth and dirt. Eskendereya could get in there as well. My dark horse is William's Kitten whose sire I mentioned before.
Who I want to win: Aikenite
Who I think will win: Lookin at Lucky, Aikenite, Eskendereya
Not going to play this race
Dark Horse: William's Kitten
BC Mile
1 Court Vision, R. Albarado, 12-1
2 Whatsthescript (IRE), K. Desormeaux, 15-1
3 Cowboy Cal, J. Velazquez, 6-1
4 Delegator (GB), L. Dettori, 3-1
5 Karelian, R. Maragh, 20-1
6 Courageous Cat, G. Gomez, 20-1
7 Ferneley (IRE), R. Bejarano, 20-1
8 Zacinto (GB), Ryan Moore, 8-1
9 Gladiatorus, Ahmed Ajtebi, 20-1
10 Justenuffhumor, A. Garcia, 10-1
11 Goldikova (IRE), O. Peslier, 8/5
All eyes will be on Goldikova as she tries to defend her Mile title. It would be the 4th title for her trainer Freddie Head, who won twice as a jockey on Miesque, the filly that Goldikova is often compared to. However, I see a bit of revenge taken this year by IEAH with Court Vision who ironicly is a full brother to Kipling the sire of 07 Mile and last year's runner up Kip Deville who is owned by IEAH. This would also flatter Gio Ponti (who I'll talk about tomorrow), as Court and him battled last year after the former switched to turf after the Derby. Karelian almost stole the Shadwell Mile won by Court Vision, and Cowboy Cal has a big chance as well. Keep an eye on Gladiatorus, he won in Dubai earlier this year and the other two prongs from Godolphin, Delagator and Justenuffhumor who could be Team USA's best chance in the race even with Court, Cal and Karelian.
Who I want to win: Court Vision, Cowboy Cal, Justenuffhumor
Who I think will win: Court Vision, Goldikova, Karelian
How I'm playing it: Court Vision/Goldikova exacta, Karlian/Cowboy Cal exacta
Dark Horse: Karelian, Gladitourus
Dirt Mile
1 Mastercraftsman (IRE), John Murtagh, 6/5
2 Furthest Land, J. Leparoux, 20-1
3 Midshipman, G. Gomez, 6-1
4 Bullsbay, J. Rose, 3-1
5 Neko Bay, Mike Smith, 20-1
6 Mambo Meister, M. Cruz, 30-1
7 Pyro, J. Velazquez, 10-1
8 Mr. Sidney, K. Desormeaux, 12-1
9 Chocolate Candy, J. Rosario, 15-1
10 Ready's Echo, Calvin Borel, 20-1
This is a race where with the expection of Neko Bay, Mambo Meister, and Furthest Land the rest of the horses could be in the Classic. However, the "Dirt" Mile is where they landed. The three I just mentioned I'm throwing out this is not a race where longshots won't have a chance this year (My opinon). Midshipman has raced once this year for Goldolphin, but won the Juvy last year in his first and only race for Darley (he was a Stonerside horse before). Pyro finally got his G1 win in the Forego, and this is probley the better race for him. However, he is not a huge synth fan, so it will be interesting how he does in his final race before stud. It's also the final race for Mr. Sidney who has been running on the turf all season, the same can not be said about Mastercraftsman who prepped on the synth in England last time out. Many people, are a bit disapointed that he's not in the Classic, however not all synths are alike. Beware of Chocolate Candy, and Ready's Echo as they can possibly steal the race. Bullsbay upset Commentator in the Whitney and ran third in the Woodward, but he missed some of training time leading up to this race.
Who I want to win: Chocolate Candy, Pyro, Mastercraftsman
Who I think will win: Mastercraftsman, Pyro
Not playing this race (I like too many horses that I would have to hit the ALL button!)
Dark Horse: Ready's Echo
Well I hope you enjoyed today's races, tomorrow the final 4, F/M Turf, Turf, Ladies Classic and Classic. Hope to see you then!
Tuesday, November 3, 2009
Breeder's Cup Fields (Part 1)
Welcome to Part 1 of a three part field coverage for the 2009 Breeder's Cup. This year there are 14 races over two days at Oak Tree at Santa Anita in Arcadia, California. Here are the first five fields that I will be talking about over the course of three days. Also I will give how I would play each race betting wise. I may or may not play them though.
Marathon
1 Black Astor, Alex Solis, 12-1
2 Muhannak (IRE), Ryan Moore, 12-1
3 Nite Light, John Velazquez, 4-1
4 Cloudy's Knight, R. Homeister, 8-1
5 Father Time (GB), Eddie Ahern, 3-1
6 Mastery (GB), L. Dettori, 9/5
7 Sir Dave, Joel Rosario, 20-1
8 Eldaafer, R. Bejarano, 30-1
9 Man of Iron, John Murtagh, 8-1
10 Gangbuster, Kent Desormeaux, 30-1
While Mastery more then likely will off as the post time favorite, I'm going against him in this race. There are two horses in the race, I'm picking for their pedigrees. The first is Nite Light, a son of Thunder Gulch the 1995 KY Derby and Belmont Stakes winner out of 1991 KY Oaks winner Lite Light who in turn spoiled Meadow Star's chance at the Triple Tiara in the CCA Oaks when that race was a mile and a half. The second is a Euro named Man of Iron, who is by 2000 BC Classic runner up Giant's Causeway out of the Deputy Minister mare Better Than Honour. This makes Man of Iron a half brother to 2006 Belmont winner Jazil, 2008 Peter Pan winner Casino Drive and 2007 KY Oaks and Belmont winner Rags to Riches. Keep an eye on Cloudy's Knight to possibly be there in the end. I'm throwing out Muhannak who has done nothing since he won the Marathon last year, and my dark horse is Father Time as I think Nite Light may take more money then he will.
Who I want to win: Nite Light, Man of Iron, Cloudy's Knight
Who I think will win: Father Time, Mastery, Man of Iron
How I'll play it: Nite Light/Man of Iron exacta, Father Time $2 across the board
Dark Horse: Father Time
Filly & Mare Sprint
1 Free Flying Soul, Mike Smith, 50-1
2 Sara Louise, L. Dettori, 9/2
3 Game Face, E. Prado, 10-1
4 Only Green (IRE), O. Peslier, 20-1
5 Silver Swallow, Alex Solis, 30-1
6 Evita Argentina, J. Rosario, 20-1
7 Informed Decision, J. Leparous, 5/2
8 Seventh Street, Rajiv Maragh, 4-1
9 Ventura, Garret Gomez, 8/5
This race betting wise is wide open, as anybody can win this. However, I see only four horses winning. I personally would love to see Ventura win this race, however I'm going to bet against her this race. I'm going to bet Sara Louise, Game Face, and Evita Argentina, all three horses are coming a bit under the radar for a few reasons. Sara Louise, the last horse to beat Rachel Alexandra was second last time out against Indian Blessing. Game Face is coming off a bit of a layoff, but did win the Princess Rooney this year at Calder, Evita Argentina beat the boys in a stakes race over the course earlier this year. My dark horse in this race is Seventh Street, she won the Apple Blossom and Go For Wand. She maybe better at least a mile, but she could suprise people here.
Who I want to win: Ventura, Sara Louise, Evita Argentina
Who I think will win: Ventura, Informed Decision
How I'll play it: Sara Louise/Game Face/Evita Argentina trifecta, Sara Louise $4 win, place, Seventh Street $2 win
Dark Horse: Seventh Street
Juvenile Fillies
1 Zilva, Jeremy Rose, 30-1
2 Ms Vanenzza, Joseph Rocco Jr., 30-1
3 Blind Luck, T. Baze, 3-1
4 Beautician, R. Albarado, 6-1
5 Bickersons, Joel Rosario, 20-1
6 Connie and Michael, K. Desormeaux, 4-1
7 Devil May Care, J. Velazquez, 8-1
8 She Be Wild, J. Leparoux, 8-1
9 Champagne d'Oro, Martin Garcia, 50-1
10 Negligee, Rajiv Maragh, 6-1
11 Always a Princess, G. Gomez, 6-1
12 Biofuel, E. Da Silva, 15-1
My heart says that Ms Vanenzza as she won her prep the Blue Hen Stakes at Delaware Park, but I'm going with She Be Wild. She was second in the Alcibides last time out, but before that she won Arlington's Lassie Stakes at 8-1 she could be a steal. Negligee is a horse, I'm tossing but I wouldn't be suprised if she turns out to be a great 3yo. Blind Luck inherated top billing after the retirement of Mi Sueno and the no show Hot Dixie Chick. Champagne d'Oro faced the boys, but did not do well at all. Hopefully she improves in this race, but I don't think she'll win. The buzz horse is Connie and Michael, who I may go against and instead go with Devil May Care. Unfortanlly this race is lacking an Awesome Maria, Hot Dixie Chick and Dattt Echo, okay so the latter is just a maiden winner, but I think she may have done well in this race.
Who I want to win: She Be Wild, Ms Vanenzza
Who I think will win: Negligee, Blind Luck, She Be Wild
How I'm playing it: $2 across the board She Be Wild
Dark Horse: Ms Vanenzza
Sprint
1 Zensational, V. Espinoza, 7/5
2 Cost of Freedom, T. Baze, 20-1
3 Fatal Bullet, E. Da Silva, 9/2
4 Crown of Thorns, R. Bejarano, 12-1
5 Gayego, G. Gomez, 5/2
6 Dancing in Silks, J. Rosario, 12-1
7 Join in the Dance, J. Velazquez, 30-1
8 Capt. Candyman Can, J. Castellano, 15-1
9 Fleeting Spirit (IRE), L. Dettori, 8-1
This is a battle of Egypt vs UAE, Zensational who is owned by a Egyptian national vs Gayego, owned by the Ruler of Dubai. However, I'm not choosing either of them. Instead I'm going with Capt. Candyman Can, who won the King's Bishop via DQ and Join in the Dance who was second in the Tampa Bay Derby behind Musket Man earlier this year. Fleeting Spirit while used to facing the boys, however she is running on a non turf surface for the first time. With that being said, she does have one of the best jockeys in the World on her. Hopefully she and Frankie can get a clear shot and suprise people, especially since girls do pretty well in the Sprint.
Who I want to win: Capt. Candyman Can, Fleeting Spirit, Join in the Dance
Who I think will win: Zenzastional, Capt. Candyman Can, Gayego
How I'm playing it: Capt. Candyman Can/Fleeting Spirit/Join in the Dance trifecta, Fleeting Spirit/Zenzastional exacta
Dark Horse: Fatal Bullet
Juvenile Fillies Turf
1 Potosina, J. Velazquez, 20-1
2 Elusive Galaxy (IRE), R. Bejarano, 12-1
3 Smart Seattle, 8-1
4 Rose Catherine, J. Castellano, 8-1
5 La Nez, Mike Smith, 20-1
6 Jungle Tale, S. Bridgmohan, 15-1
7 House of Grace, Michael Luzzi, 4-1
8 Lillie Langtry, J. Murtagh, 3-1
9 Hatheer, Alan Garcia, 10-1
10 Tapitsfly, Robby Albarado, 8-1
11 Junia Tepzia (IRE), K. Fallon, 8-1
12 Lisa's Kitten, J. Leparoux, 12-1
Unfortnally I don't know alot about the horses, however I'm going with Lillie Langtry who looks like she could be something special next year for the Euros. Lisa's Kitten won last time out in Texas, and House of Grace looks like she could be some value. Unfortnally the horse I really wanted to see in the race, Dad's Crazy is an AE and unlikley to make the field.
Who I want to win: Lillie Langtry
Who I think will win: Lillie Langtry
Not going to play this race
Dark Horse: Tapitsfly
I hope you enjoyed Part 1, tomorrow Part 2 with five more races, and then on Thurs the final four races.
Marathon
1 Black Astor, Alex Solis, 12-1
2 Muhannak (IRE), Ryan Moore, 12-1
3 Nite Light, John Velazquez, 4-1
4 Cloudy's Knight, R. Homeister, 8-1
5 Father Time (GB), Eddie Ahern, 3-1
6 Mastery (GB), L. Dettori, 9/5
7 Sir Dave, Joel Rosario, 20-1
8 Eldaafer, R. Bejarano, 30-1
9 Man of Iron, John Murtagh, 8-1
10 Gangbuster, Kent Desormeaux, 30-1
While Mastery more then likely will off as the post time favorite, I'm going against him in this race. There are two horses in the race, I'm picking for their pedigrees. The first is Nite Light, a son of Thunder Gulch the 1995 KY Derby and Belmont Stakes winner out of 1991 KY Oaks winner Lite Light who in turn spoiled Meadow Star's chance at the Triple Tiara in the CCA Oaks when that race was a mile and a half. The second is a Euro named Man of Iron, who is by 2000 BC Classic runner up Giant's Causeway out of the Deputy Minister mare Better Than Honour. This makes Man of Iron a half brother to 2006 Belmont winner Jazil, 2008 Peter Pan winner Casino Drive and 2007 KY Oaks and Belmont winner Rags to Riches. Keep an eye on Cloudy's Knight to possibly be there in the end. I'm throwing out Muhannak who has done nothing since he won the Marathon last year, and my dark horse is Father Time as I think Nite Light may take more money then he will.
Who I want to win: Nite Light, Man of Iron, Cloudy's Knight
Who I think will win: Father Time, Mastery, Man of Iron
How I'll play it: Nite Light/Man of Iron exacta, Father Time $2 across the board
Dark Horse: Father Time
Filly & Mare Sprint
1 Free Flying Soul, Mike Smith, 50-1
2 Sara Louise, L. Dettori, 9/2
3 Game Face, E. Prado, 10-1
4 Only Green (IRE), O. Peslier, 20-1
5 Silver Swallow, Alex Solis, 30-1
6 Evita Argentina, J. Rosario, 20-1
7 Informed Decision, J. Leparous, 5/2
8 Seventh Street, Rajiv Maragh, 4-1
9 Ventura, Garret Gomez, 8/5
This race betting wise is wide open, as anybody can win this. However, I see only four horses winning. I personally would love to see Ventura win this race, however I'm going to bet against her this race. I'm going to bet Sara Louise, Game Face, and Evita Argentina, all three horses are coming a bit under the radar for a few reasons. Sara Louise, the last horse to beat Rachel Alexandra was second last time out against Indian Blessing. Game Face is coming off a bit of a layoff, but did win the Princess Rooney this year at Calder, Evita Argentina beat the boys in a stakes race over the course earlier this year. My dark horse in this race is Seventh Street, she won the Apple Blossom and Go For Wand. She maybe better at least a mile, but she could suprise people here.
Who I want to win: Ventura, Sara Louise, Evita Argentina
Who I think will win: Ventura, Informed Decision
How I'll play it: Sara Louise/Game Face/Evita Argentina trifecta, Sara Louise $4 win, place, Seventh Street $2 win
Dark Horse: Seventh Street
Juvenile Fillies
1 Zilva, Jeremy Rose, 30-1
2 Ms Vanenzza, Joseph Rocco Jr., 30-1
3 Blind Luck, T. Baze, 3-1
4 Beautician, R. Albarado, 6-1
5 Bickersons, Joel Rosario, 20-1
6 Connie and Michael, K. Desormeaux, 4-1
7 Devil May Care, J. Velazquez, 8-1
8 She Be Wild, J. Leparoux, 8-1
9 Champagne d'Oro, Martin Garcia, 50-1
10 Negligee, Rajiv Maragh, 6-1
11 Always a Princess, G. Gomez, 6-1
12 Biofuel, E. Da Silva, 15-1
My heart says that Ms Vanenzza as she won her prep the Blue Hen Stakes at Delaware Park, but I'm going with She Be Wild. She was second in the Alcibides last time out, but before that she won Arlington's Lassie Stakes at 8-1 she could be a steal. Negligee is a horse, I'm tossing but I wouldn't be suprised if she turns out to be a great 3yo. Blind Luck inherated top billing after the retirement of Mi Sueno and the no show Hot Dixie Chick. Champagne d'Oro faced the boys, but did not do well at all. Hopefully she improves in this race, but I don't think she'll win. The buzz horse is Connie and Michael, who I may go against and instead go with Devil May Care. Unfortanlly this race is lacking an Awesome Maria, Hot Dixie Chick and Dattt Echo, okay so the latter is just a maiden winner, but I think she may have done well in this race.
Who I want to win: She Be Wild, Ms Vanenzza
Who I think will win: Negligee, Blind Luck, She Be Wild
How I'm playing it: $2 across the board She Be Wild
Dark Horse: Ms Vanenzza
Sprint
1 Zensational, V. Espinoza, 7/5
2 Cost of Freedom, T. Baze, 20-1
3 Fatal Bullet, E. Da Silva, 9/2
4 Crown of Thorns, R. Bejarano, 12-1
5 Gayego, G. Gomez, 5/2
6 Dancing in Silks, J. Rosario, 12-1
7 Join in the Dance, J. Velazquez, 30-1
8 Capt. Candyman Can, J. Castellano, 15-1
9 Fleeting Spirit (IRE), L. Dettori, 8-1
This is a battle of Egypt vs UAE, Zensational who is owned by a Egyptian national vs Gayego, owned by the Ruler of Dubai. However, I'm not choosing either of them. Instead I'm going with Capt. Candyman Can, who won the King's Bishop via DQ and Join in the Dance who was second in the Tampa Bay Derby behind Musket Man earlier this year. Fleeting Spirit while used to facing the boys, however she is running on a non turf surface for the first time. With that being said, she does have one of the best jockeys in the World on her. Hopefully she and Frankie can get a clear shot and suprise people, especially since girls do pretty well in the Sprint.
Who I want to win: Capt. Candyman Can, Fleeting Spirit, Join in the Dance
Who I think will win: Zenzastional, Capt. Candyman Can, Gayego
How I'm playing it: Capt. Candyman Can/Fleeting Spirit/Join in the Dance trifecta, Fleeting Spirit/Zenzastional exacta
Dark Horse: Fatal Bullet
Juvenile Fillies Turf
1 Potosina, J. Velazquez, 20-1
2 Elusive Galaxy (IRE), R. Bejarano, 12-1
3 Smart Seattle, 8-1
4 Rose Catherine, J. Castellano, 8-1
5 La Nez, Mike Smith, 20-1
6 Jungle Tale, S. Bridgmohan, 15-1
7 House of Grace, Michael Luzzi, 4-1
8 Lillie Langtry, J. Murtagh, 3-1
9 Hatheer, Alan Garcia, 10-1
10 Tapitsfly, Robby Albarado, 8-1
11 Junia Tepzia (IRE), K. Fallon, 8-1
12 Lisa's Kitten, J. Leparoux, 12-1
Unfortnally I don't know alot about the horses, however I'm going with Lillie Langtry who looks like she could be something special next year for the Euros. Lisa's Kitten won last time out in Texas, and House of Grace looks like she could be some value. Unfortnally the horse I really wanted to see in the race, Dad's Crazy is an AE and unlikley to make the field.
Who I want to win: Lillie Langtry
Who I think will win: Lillie Langtry
Not going to play this race
Dark Horse: Tapitsfly
I hope you enjoyed Part 1, tomorrow Part 2 with five more races, and then on Thurs the final four races.
Monday, November 2, 2009
Breeder's Cup Preview: Classic
Well here it is the final Preview before I breakdown the actual fields starting tomorrow. The big race of the weekend the Classic. I'm going to be doing this one a bit different then the other ones, as I'm going to preview all of the horses that are in the pre-entry list, even those who might be excluded from the race. Using a pro and con system. This will be in alphabetical order, with the exception of the two who need help of getting in.
Awesome Gem (Awesome Again)
Pros: He is coming into the Classic with a win in the Hawthorne Gold Cup, and was third in the 2007 Breeder's Cup Classic behind Curlin (Smart Strike) and Hard Spun (Danzig). He also has experience over the synthtic surface as he is based in Cali.
Cons: In reality he's a fill in for his ownershipmate Macho Again (Macho Uno), also he maybe a touch or two below the field.
Awesome Gem is cross nominated for the Mile (2nd peference)
Bullsbay (Tiznow)
Pros: He's coming in off two very solid races, with an upset win in the Whitney denying Commentator his third Whitney win and a 3rd place finish in the Woodward behind Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d' Oro) and the previously mentioned Macho Again.
Cons: He missed a prep with an injury and may not race at the Breeder's Cup at all.
Bullsbay is cross nominated for the Dirt Mile (1st perference) and will be pointing there instead of the Classic.
Colonel John (Tiznow)
Pros: Has a win over the course and is coming off a second place finish in the Goodwood, plus unlike the other Americans (with the exception of Awesome Gem and Einstein), he has turf experience and this is a big deal as synthtics are more turf leaning then dirt leaning. He also has a win at the Classic distance.
Cons: If he gets into traffic troubles, expect a poor effort from him. He's not a horse who can overcome them that easily.
Colonel John is cross cominated for the Mile (2nd perference)
Einstein (BRZ) (Spend a Buck)
Pros: He's coming into the race a bit under radar after a 2nd place finish in the Pacific Classic, has a win over the course and has turf expereince. Has a win at the Classic distance.
Cons: He hasn't run since August, so is he too fresh? Also if he bobbles at the beggining of the race, he's done. He bobbled in the Arlington Million two years in a row.
Gio Ponti (Tale of the Cat)
Pros: Has a win at the Classic distance and a win over the course and has turf experience. Plus he has beaten the Euros this year with his Arlington Million win.
Cons: Dispite winning the Kilore, Manhattahn, Man O War and Arlington Million; he has the one coming in with the most downside. Why? Yes he was second last time out, but it showed that he had a weakness, plus while he has a win over the course, his record otherwise is not that great on the main track.
Mastercraftsman (IRE) (Danehill Dancer (IRE))
Pros: A European with upswing, this 3yo is the only Euro pre-entered into the Classic who has synthtic experience. Plus he is a Group 1 winner and was one of the few horses to get really make Sea the Stars (IRE) (Cape Cross (IRE)) work for his win.
Cons: Not all synthtics are alike
Mastercraftsman is cross-nominated into the Dirt Mile (1st preference)*
*For the record, I rather see him in the Classic instead of the Dirt Mile.
Mine That Bird (Birdstone)
Pros: Like Einstein, he's coming in under the radar. You rarely see a Derby winner come in under the radar, but then again he is only the third Derby winner since 2003 to particpate in the Breeder's Cup (Funny Cide and Giacomo being the other two). Plus he has run a prep over the surface last time out. Has a win at the Classic distance.
Cons: Unfortanlly that prep was a 6th place finish, secondly he has nothing to lose, nothing to gain out of this race as he has basically lost 3yo Champion Male, oh and he has a last place finish as a 2yo over the surface. Has yet to win since the Derby.
Quality Road (Elusive Quality)
Pros: He's never been on a synth surface, but it could be good for his feet which have quarter crack history. Is coming off a 2nd place finish in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. And the big swing is no muddy surfaces. His sire had the winner last year Raven's Pass.
Cons: The fact that he has yet to be on a synthetic surface, plus a quarter crack could open up which could result in a scratch. Also has yet to win at the distance
Regal Ransom (Distorted Humor)
Pros: Is coming off a win in the Super Derby, plus has the early speed that might help him out. He's owned by the same group that owns Raven's Pass.
Cons: Can he do well on a synth which is something he hasn't done in the past, and can he stretch his speed to a mile and a quarter.
Regal Ransom is cross nominated into the Dirt Mile (2nd perference)
Richard's Kid (Lemon Drop Kid)
Pros: Coming off a solid 3rd place finish in the Goodwood, has a win at the Classic distance which he won the Pacific Classic in a shocker. He also has the trainer to do it in Bob Baffert.
Cons: He's still a bit of an unknown after being brought over from Maryland earlier this year. He may go off at lower odds then he should, and there will be a bullseye on his back because he has done well the past two races.
Rip Van Winkle (IRE) (Galieo (IRE))
Pros: A G1 winner in Europe, and ran behind Sea the Stars earlier this year. He is supposed to be the better of the two possible Coolmore entrients into the Classic (he's the more likely of the two to go with Mastercraftsman in the Dirt Mile).
Cons: And there are lots of them zero synthtic experience and injury prone. Add in his sire who is a half brother to Sea the Stars, did not do well in the Classic in 2001. However that was over a dirt surface. And for a personal perspective, I rather see Mastercraftsman in the race then him. Of the two Euros expected in the race, I think he's the weak link.
Summer Bird (Birdstone)
Pros: A win in the Classic may give him a chance for Horse of the Year, as he would have won the Belmont, Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup. He's won at the Classic distance and has beaten Quality Road (twice), and Mine That Bird. His trainer is an up and comer and has a Hall of Fame jockey. With his credintals, one would think he is the solid favorite.
Cons: Unfortanlly that is not the case, with a certin mare who I will talk about in a few minutes. Also, while he trained over a synthtic surface as a two year old, he has yet to race over it. Training and racing, are two compleatly different animals IMO. The other big thing is he has done all of his running this year, so far it hasn't caught up to him. However, you have to wonder if the wear and tear will get to him on Saturday.
Summer Bird is cross nominated to the Turf (2nd preference)
Twice Over (GB) (Observatory)
Pros: Is coming of a win in the Champion Stakes at Newmarket, has a win at the Classic distance
Cons: Lack of synthtic experience and the compleate unknown of the two Euros expected to be entered. However that maybe a good thing.
Zenyatta (Street Cry (IRE))
Pros: Lets see, going for #14 in a row, basically on home turf (actual homebase is Hollywood Park), could get Horse of the Year with a win, has a win over the course, is the defending Ladies Classic champion, and oh yeah she's Zenyatta whatelse does she need to do.
Cons: This will not only be the longest she's ever gone, but she is facing the boys for the first time. She did almost lose this year, however it was on Poly which is not her best synth and at a mile and sixthteenth, where as she's better at a mile and eighth. If she where to be Horse of the Year, she needs to beat these boys and will close ground on Rachel Alexandra. But wouldn't it be something if it ends up in a tie and then the Horses of the Year would be a 3yo boy beating filly and a 5yo boy beating mare. Girl power all the way!
Zenyatta is cross nominated to the Ladies Classic (2nd perference)
And the two that need(ed) help:
Chocolate Candy (Candy Ride (ARG))
Pros: Has the pedigree to go a mile and a quarter, plus he has a win over synthetic tracks
Cons: Has yet to win the Classic distance, did not do well in the Triple Crown
Chocolate Candy is cross nominated to the Dirt Mile (1st perference)
Girolamo (A.P. Indy)
Pros: By a Classic winner, out of a Mr. Prospector mare who in turn is out of a mare who is the half sister to Private Account, the sire of Personal Ensign. So he has the pedigree to go that mile and quarter distance.
Cons: In this is a case where coming under the radar maybe a bad idea. While he won a G2 this year, his venture G1 company last year did not go well.
Girolamo is cross nominated Dirt Mile (2nd perference)
So that's it, that is your Breeder's Cup Classic preview. A few final notes, late tonight here in the US will be the Melbourne Cup which is Australia's biggest race of the year. I will have a mini recap of that race tomorrow as I plan to stay up and watch it on my computer. Starting tomorrow, I will have the fields for 5 of this year's Breeder's Cup races. Weds another 5 and then Thurs the final 4 races. I find this the easiest way to get everything up in a prompt matter.
Awesome Gem (Awesome Again)
Pros: He is coming into the Classic with a win in the Hawthorne Gold Cup, and was third in the 2007 Breeder's Cup Classic behind Curlin (Smart Strike) and Hard Spun (Danzig). He also has experience over the synthtic surface as he is based in Cali.
Cons: In reality he's a fill in for his ownershipmate Macho Again (Macho Uno), also he maybe a touch or two below the field.
Awesome Gem is cross nominated for the Mile (2nd peference)
Bullsbay (Tiznow)
Pros: He's coming in off two very solid races, with an upset win in the Whitney denying Commentator his third Whitney win and a 3rd place finish in the Woodward behind Rachel Alexandra (Medaglia d' Oro) and the previously mentioned Macho Again.
Cons: He missed a prep with an injury and may not race at the Breeder's Cup at all.
Bullsbay is cross nominated for the Dirt Mile (1st perference) and will be pointing there instead of the Classic.
Colonel John (Tiznow)
Pros: Has a win over the course and is coming off a second place finish in the Goodwood, plus unlike the other Americans (with the exception of Awesome Gem and Einstein), he has turf experience and this is a big deal as synthtics are more turf leaning then dirt leaning. He also has a win at the Classic distance.
Cons: If he gets into traffic troubles, expect a poor effort from him. He's not a horse who can overcome them that easily.
Colonel John is cross cominated for the Mile (2nd perference)
Einstein (BRZ) (Spend a Buck)
Pros: He's coming into the race a bit under radar after a 2nd place finish in the Pacific Classic, has a win over the course and has turf expereince. Has a win at the Classic distance.
Cons: He hasn't run since August, so is he too fresh? Also if he bobbles at the beggining of the race, he's done. He bobbled in the Arlington Million two years in a row.
Gio Ponti (Tale of the Cat)
Pros: Has a win at the Classic distance and a win over the course and has turf experience. Plus he has beaten the Euros this year with his Arlington Million win.
Cons: Dispite winning the Kilore, Manhattahn, Man O War and Arlington Million; he has the one coming in with the most downside. Why? Yes he was second last time out, but it showed that he had a weakness, plus while he has a win over the course, his record otherwise is not that great on the main track.
Mastercraftsman (IRE) (Danehill Dancer (IRE))
Pros: A European with upswing, this 3yo is the only Euro pre-entered into the Classic who has synthtic experience. Plus he is a Group 1 winner and was one of the few horses to get really make Sea the Stars (IRE) (Cape Cross (IRE)) work for his win.
Cons: Not all synthtics are alike
Mastercraftsman is cross-nominated into the Dirt Mile (1st preference)*
*For the record, I rather see him in the Classic instead of the Dirt Mile.
Mine That Bird (Birdstone)
Pros: Like Einstein, he's coming in under the radar. You rarely see a Derby winner come in under the radar, but then again he is only the third Derby winner since 2003 to particpate in the Breeder's Cup (Funny Cide and Giacomo being the other two). Plus he has run a prep over the surface last time out. Has a win at the Classic distance.
Cons: Unfortanlly that prep was a 6th place finish, secondly he has nothing to lose, nothing to gain out of this race as he has basically lost 3yo Champion Male, oh and he has a last place finish as a 2yo over the surface. Has yet to win since the Derby.
Quality Road (Elusive Quality)
Pros: He's never been on a synth surface, but it could be good for his feet which have quarter crack history. Is coming off a 2nd place finish in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. And the big swing is no muddy surfaces. His sire had the winner last year Raven's Pass.
Cons: The fact that he has yet to be on a synthetic surface, plus a quarter crack could open up which could result in a scratch. Also has yet to win at the distance
Regal Ransom (Distorted Humor)
Pros: Is coming off a win in the Super Derby, plus has the early speed that might help him out. He's owned by the same group that owns Raven's Pass.
Cons: Can he do well on a synth which is something he hasn't done in the past, and can he stretch his speed to a mile and a quarter.
Regal Ransom is cross nominated into the Dirt Mile (2nd perference)
Richard's Kid (Lemon Drop Kid)
Pros: Coming off a solid 3rd place finish in the Goodwood, has a win at the Classic distance which he won the Pacific Classic in a shocker. He also has the trainer to do it in Bob Baffert.
Cons: He's still a bit of an unknown after being brought over from Maryland earlier this year. He may go off at lower odds then he should, and there will be a bullseye on his back because he has done well the past two races.
Rip Van Winkle (IRE) (Galieo (IRE))
Pros: A G1 winner in Europe, and ran behind Sea the Stars earlier this year. He is supposed to be the better of the two possible Coolmore entrients into the Classic (he's the more likely of the two to go with Mastercraftsman in the Dirt Mile).
Cons: And there are lots of them zero synthtic experience and injury prone. Add in his sire who is a half brother to Sea the Stars, did not do well in the Classic in 2001. However that was over a dirt surface. And for a personal perspective, I rather see Mastercraftsman in the race then him. Of the two Euros expected in the race, I think he's the weak link.
Summer Bird (Birdstone)
Pros: A win in the Classic may give him a chance for Horse of the Year, as he would have won the Belmont, Travers and Jockey Club Gold Cup. He's won at the Classic distance and has beaten Quality Road (twice), and Mine That Bird. His trainer is an up and comer and has a Hall of Fame jockey. With his credintals, one would think he is the solid favorite.
Cons: Unfortanlly that is not the case, with a certin mare who I will talk about in a few minutes. Also, while he trained over a synthtic surface as a two year old, he has yet to race over it. Training and racing, are two compleatly different animals IMO. The other big thing is he has done all of his running this year, so far it hasn't caught up to him. However, you have to wonder if the wear and tear will get to him on Saturday.
Summer Bird is cross nominated to the Turf (2nd preference)
Twice Over (GB) (Observatory)
Pros: Is coming of a win in the Champion Stakes at Newmarket, has a win at the Classic distance
Cons: Lack of synthtic experience and the compleate unknown of the two Euros expected to be entered. However that maybe a good thing.
Zenyatta (Street Cry (IRE))
Pros: Lets see, going for #14 in a row, basically on home turf (actual homebase is Hollywood Park), could get Horse of the Year with a win, has a win over the course, is the defending Ladies Classic champion, and oh yeah she's Zenyatta whatelse does she need to do.
Cons: This will not only be the longest she's ever gone, but she is facing the boys for the first time. She did almost lose this year, however it was on Poly which is not her best synth and at a mile and sixthteenth, where as she's better at a mile and eighth. If she where to be Horse of the Year, she needs to beat these boys and will close ground on Rachel Alexandra. But wouldn't it be something if it ends up in a tie and then the Horses of the Year would be a 3yo boy beating filly and a 5yo boy beating mare. Girl power all the way!
Zenyatta is cross nominated to the Ladies Classic (2nd perference)
And the two that need(ed) help:
Chocolate Candy (Candy Ride (ARG))
Pros: Has the pedigree to go a mile and a quarter, plus he has a win over synthetic tracks
Cons: Has yet to win the Classic distance, did not do well in the Triple Crown
Chocolate Candy is cross nominated to the Dirt Mile (1st perference)
Girolamo (A.P. Indy)
Pros: By a Classic winner, out of a Mr. Prospector mare who in turn is out of a mare who is the half sister to Private Account, the sire of Personal Ensign. So he has the pedigree to go that mile and quarter distance.
Cons: In this is a case where coming under the radar maybe a bad idea. While he won a G2 this year, his venture G1 company last year did not go well.
Girolamo is cross nominated Dirt Mile (2nd perference)
So that's it, that is your Breeder's Cup Classic preview. A few final notes, late tonight here in the US will be the Melbourne Cup which is Australia's biggest race of the year. I will have a mini recap of that race tomorrow as I plan to stay up and watch it on my computer. Starting tomorrow, I will have the fields for 5 of this year's Breeder's Cup races. Weds another 5 and then Thurs the final 4 races. I find this the easiest way to get everything up in a prompt matter.
Sunday, November 1, 2009
Breeder's Cup Preview: Turf and Juvenile (male) races
I had plans to do this on Friday, however due to some issues beyond my control I couldn't. So in lieu of a Weekend Recap, I will be previewing the three races today. Tomorrow it will be the Classic and on Tuesday I will go start making my predictions for the Breeder's Cup as that is when the post positions will be coming out.
Juvenile Turf
Not much to say here, because it will ruled by the Euros more then likely. The Americans however, will be lead by Interactif who I personally think is sitting on a big race. He won at Keenland last time out, and could spoil the Euro party. Also keep an eye on him on next year's Derby trail, even though he's a turf horse. Why? He's by Broken Vow who is very underrated IMO out of Broad Pennant, a Broad Brush mare. However, it's his great grandmother that is very interesting and that's because Broad Pennant's granddam is the one and only Personal Ensign. As for the Euros, US bound Radiohead (bought by IEAH), Buzzword and Alfred Noble lead the charge.
Juvenile
Three words: Lookin at Lucky, this son of Smart Strike is the very early favorite for the Kentucky Derby. Some say that D'Funnybone could be better then him and with bombing of Dublin not only in the Chamagne, but today's Irqouis the favoritism for the First Saturday in May is up for grabs. I don't know if next year's Derby winner will come out of this year's Juvi, however the race is on a roll. Two of the last three Derby winners have come out of this race. Ironically both where ridden by Calvin Borel in the Derby, but in the Juvi two different riders. Street Sense and Calvin teamed up in the 06 Juvi win (07 Derby win), and Mine That Bird with Chantal Sutherland finished last in last year's Juvi (09 Derby win). There maybe 1 or 2 Euros who may go here instead, but there really isn't much reason why to unless the Owners have KY Derby fever and not Epsom Derby fever. This is my opinon of course and things can change.
Turf
This is always a strong event with Arc winners running, and popular winners like Better Talk Now and English Channel in more recent years. Unfortanlly this could be the worst race both days, with a low amount of pre-entries. The favorite for the race, Spanish Moon, is not even allowed to race in England because of his antics about being loaded in the gate. The second choice more then likely will be last year's Champ Conduit, and the third choice would be Dar Re Mi (who have talked about before). America's best hope? Presious Passion, a NJ based gelding who won the prep for the BC over the SA course. That's right I said he's based in New Jersey, and he broke English Channel's course record this year too. He'll be the pacemaker in the race and if he gets to a wide open lead with no pressure, he could be hard to catch. So where are horses like Gio Ponti, Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman? Will the first two are Classic bound while the latter is going to the Dirt Mile.
Tomorrow I will talk about Gio, Rip and the rest of the Classic hopefuls with the final installment of the BC Preview: the Classic. Stay tuned!
Juvenile Turf
Not much to say here, because it will ruled by the Euros more then likely. The Americans however, will be lead by Interactif who I personally think is sitting on a big race. He won at Keenland last time out, and could spoil the Euro party. Also keep an eye on him on next year's Derby trail, even though he's a turf horse. Why? He's by Broken Vow who is very underrated IMO out of Broad Pennant, a Broad Brush mare. However, it's his great grandmother that is very interesting and that's because Broad Pennant's granddam is the one and only Personal Ensign. As for the Euros, US bound Radiohead (bought by IEAH), Buzzword and Alfred Noble lead the charge.
Juvenile
Three words: Lookin at Lucky, this son of Smart Strike is the very early favorite for the Kentucky Derby. Some say that D'Funnybone could be better then him and with bombing of Dublin not only in the Chamagne, but today's Irqouis the favoritism for the First Saturday in May is up for grabs. I don't know if next year's Derby winner will come out of this year's Juvi, however the race is on a roll. Two of the last three Derby winners have come out of this race. Ironically both where ridden by Calvin Borel in the Derby, but in the Juvi two different riders. Street Sense and Calvin teamed up in the 06 Juvi win (07 Derby win), and Mine That Bird with Chantal Sutherland finished last in last year's Juvi (09 Derby win). There maybe 1 or 2 Euros who may go here instead, but there really isn't much reason why to unless the Owners have KY Derby fever and not Epsom Derby fever. This is my opinon of course and things can change.
Turf
This is always a strong event with Arc winners running, and popular winners like Better Talk Now and English Channel in more recent years. Unfortanlly this could be the worst race both days, with a low amount of pre-entries. The favorite for the race, Spanish Moon, is not even allowed to race in England because of his antics about being loaded in the gate. The second choice more then likely will be last year's Champ Conduit, and the third choice would be Dar Re Mi (who have talked about before). America's best hope? Presious Passion, a NJ based gelding who won the prep for the BC over the SA course. That's right I said he's based in New Jersey, and he broke English Channel's course record this year too. He'll be the pacemaker in the race and if he gets to a wide open lead with no pressure, he could be hard to catch. So where are horses like Gio Ponti, Rip Van Winkle and Mastercraftsman? Will the first two are Classic bound while the latter is going to the Dirt Mile.
Tomorrow I will talk about Gio, Rip and the rest of the Classic hopefuls with the final installment of the BC Preview: the Classic. Stay tuned!
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